Tag Archives: Lizzy Yarnold

selections

* 2 points Mo Farah 40/1 Winner, You Bet (33/1 with a variety of bookies)

* 3 points each way Gareth Bale 33/1 Ladbrokes 1/5 odds 1,2,3

We’re on the brink of a key period in the SPOTY year – Wimbledon second week, the Tour De France and the Commonwealth Games.

We have two selections advised just over three weeks ago in Chris Froome and Andy Murray who are currently strong in the market. They were advised at 7/1 and 14/1 respectively and are now best priced 6/1 and 7/1.

I would go so far as to say that if Murray won Wimbledon again he will win SPOTY again (if memory serves me correctly he went very heavily odds on for SPOTY after winning Wimbledon last year). It is difficult to imagine a performance during the rest of the year that could beat it for popularity. This makes the 7/1 that is still available with Betfred / Totesport very appealing as he is a best priced 3/1 to win Wimbledon. I think Murray should be favourite against anyone he plays during the tournament but of course he will likely have to beat two of the greats (Djokovic and Nadal (or Federer)) along the way which is not entirely straightforward.

While the focus of the SPOTY market is on Murray, I think it is worth our while looking elsewhere in case Murray falters. If this happens the focus on SPOTY will shift to the Commonwealth Games, the two remaining golf majors and the Ryder Cup and back to the F1 Championship (where Lewis Hamilton has lost more ground recently to Nico Rosberg).

Mo

Mo Farah has confirmed he is to run in Glasgow. He would be our most high profile performer (although he would be running for England in Scotland which complicates things a little) and it is worth getting him onside at a big price. I can only see his price getting shorter if he turns up and we can look to potential lay him off to win his events nearer the time if necessary as he will probably be a short price to win them. His price will get significantly shorter if Froome or Murray do not win.

Balo

I can’t resist getting Gareth Bale on board at 33/1 each way. He’s the world’s most expensive footballer currently (which still hasn’t really sunk in). A great player. He, along with Lizzy Yarnold, remain the only contenders to really have achieved anything at this point this year, with Bale scoring the ‘winning’ goal in the Champions League final. The key to this bet is that he must have a very good chance of making the short list of 10 and once there anything can happen. The Welsh are a force to be feared in SPOTY betting (Joe Calzaghe and Leigh Halfpenny are two recent examples) and I can see them really getting behind their man on the day. They may enjoy supporting him as a contrast to the English floundering in the World Cup.

Agree with the above thinking? Think having Mo running for England in Scotland makes things too tricky to back him? Think that everyone will have forgotten about the Champions League final come December? Do feel free to comment on here or Twitter with any opinion you may have on the matter.

 

2014 the story so far..

Normally an even numbered year would see the English footballers featuring fairly prominently in the SPOTY betting markets. The last couple of years though has seen a long overdue sense of realism take over about the prospects of the home grown players.

So, at the start of the year, it was left to last year’s landslide winner Andy Murray to head the market at about 5.0. Chris Froome, the impressive 2013 Tour De France winner, was second favourite. Other than that though, the markets suggested that people could not really think of anyone else. And the market leaders would always be vulnerable once the year got underway and British sportspeople started putting top performances in the book.

Lizzy Yarnold was first up in February, winning gold in Russia. She traded as short as 4.2 on Betfair.

She was then followed by ..  well we’re still waiting really. But that’s not to say there hasn’t been plenty of activity in the SPOTY markets..

Mo Farah was originally priced up as the favourite for the London marathon in places before the market corrected. Mo eventually finished in 8th and any prospect of him being SPOTY appeared to vanish.

Last weekend Ronnie O’Sullivan gave up a healthy lead in the world snooker final to foil another SPOTY gamble (traded as big as 500 into 8.4 in Betfair).

By far the biggest story of this SPOTY year so far though has been Steven Gerrard. He was heavily backed into as short as 1.74 (from a high of 150) on the back of Liverpool’s ten game winning streak that took them to within touching distance of their first English title since 1990. The dream now appears to be over and Gerrard has drifted off again as quickly as he came.

Gerrard

The consistent Lewis Hamilton is the solid favourite having got off to a very good start in his shiny fast new F1 car.

The above illustrates just how so much can happen, yet nothing much at all. And how, to my mind, it is one of the most interesting betting markets, providing entertainment and many varied trading opportunities.

Here I aim to dissect and report on the market throughout the year, as well as the different sports and events that shape it. At the same time building up a profitable portfolio trading in the SPOTY market itself and in the sports markets involving the (perceived) potential protagonists.