SPOTY night is tomorrow – 6.45pm on BBC1. The shortlist was announced on Monday morning: Emma Raducanu, Tom Daley, Tyson Fury, Adam Peaty, Raheem Sterling and Sarah Storey. Recent Olympic years have seen an extended shortlist but the organisers now seem to be sticking rigidly to the quota of six there has been since 2018.

Mark Cavendish fans are probably the most disappointed to be missing out, with Jason and Laura Kenny other high profile names not to make the cut. It would also have been interesting to see what price Lewis Hamilton would have been trading at if he had won in Abu Dhabi last weekend.

It’s been an incredible year of ups and downs in the SPOTY markets, mainly courtesy of the Euros, the Olympics, the Tour De France and the F1 championship. The following minimum prices traded on Betfair give an idea of the roller coaster ride: Laura Kenny 2, Jason Kenny 2.04, Daley 2.2, Harry Kane 3, Sterling 3, Jordan Pickford 3, Lewis Hamilton 3.15, Cavendish 3.2, Marcus Rashford 5.3, Joe Root 6, Dina Asher-Smith 6, Anthony Joshua 6.6, Peaty 7, Fury 7.2.

One event though stands out above all others. Emma Raducanu’s US Open win in September was a sensation. The then 18-year-old became the first player to win a grand slam as a qualifier and also the first to win a grand slam at only the second attempt (having made the 4th round at Wimbledon before retiring with breathing difficulties). She only made her senior WTA debut in June.

At Flushing Meadows she powered through 10 matches (including 3 in qualifying) without dropping a set. She was around 250/1 pre-tournament with bookies and on Betfair one punter got £3.74 on at 500. She didn’t even get added to the Betfair SPOTY market until the end of the first week in New York.

The British public quickly became infatuated with the new superstar. She is now one of the most marketable sportspeople in the world, signing lucrative deals with Dior, Evian and Tiffany.

Tennis-wise Raducanu has done very little since the US Open but no-one will care about that. A SPOTY victory seems assured and would break the streak of an Olympian winning in every Olympic year since 2000 – she is 1.06 to win.

In terms of the 2021 selections on this site, it’s been a case of poor timing. Firstly in not selecting Daley speculatively when he was available at big prices and secondly in not pressing the button on here when Raducanu was scything through the US Open. A first annual loss is now the likely outcome but that’s betting and it’s been a good run.

On looking at the current market for value, it’s not as appealing as it has been in previous editions. The current prices in the ‘without Raducanu’ market are: Daley 2/5, Fury 4/1, Peaty 8/1, Sterling 25/1 and Storey 40/1. Top 3 are: Daley 1/8, Fury 8/11, Peaty 11/8, Sterling 7/1 and Storey 10/1. Some bigger prices may be available on Betfair.

The buzz around Daley’s sporting achievement has been fairly muted recently – probably to do with his gold medal being with the help of his synchronised diving partner Matty Lee and diving not being the most mainstream of sports. However, on the night, the human interest element in his section of the show has the potential to act as a catalyst for votes.

In more normal circumstances, with Fury not boycotting the show, and instead being interviewed like the other nominees, it looks like he’d have a great chance to go at least one better than his close up 4th place in 2015. He remains a popular character in general, with his win against Deontay Wilder in their third bout still fairly fresh in the memory.

However, the concern is how his segment will come across in the show. Last year, when Fury was also absent, the BBC put him on first in the order which helped to minimise his vote. This year though he arguably has less strong opposition overall, with no sign of any campaign contenders like Jordan Henderson and Hollie Doyle.

Peaty is a swimming phenomenon. He has a best placed finish in SPOTY of 5th in 2017 but there is a feeling this year he has cut through to the public a lot more. He appeared in this autumn’s Strictly which may help provide a small amount of extra recognition among the public.

Storey is an exceptional Paralympian but has struggled historically to make much of an impression when previously nominated. It is a similar story for Sterling too and without any sign of a Manchester City fan campaign behind him it may be that the top 3 is beyond him again.

While Daley does seem most likely to be second to Raducanu, the odds are now quite tight. Fury is the wildcard and, in the hope he gets a fair edit in the show, it looks worth some small bets to include him.

* 0.75pt Fury ‘without Raducanu’ 4/1 general

* 0.5pts Raducanu-Fury-Peaty tricast 28/1 Skybet

* 0.25pts Raducanu-Peaty-Fury tricast 33/1 Skybet

Good luck with your bets on the night and I hope followers have managed to negotiate the year without too much damage. It will be interesting to see the show and how the markets react in-running.

Once again the Olympics delivered. Despite all the challenges it provided its usual mix of outstanding performances, high drama and captivating stories. Team GB’s success, escalating as the Games went on, across a range of sports, added to the appeal for UK viewers. They finished 4th in the medal table, below their 2nd place in Rio but equal on 65 medals with London.

There was uncertainty about how Tokyo 2020 would come across without paying fans but there seemed to be enough spectators (athletes, staff and officials etc) at most events to create a decent enough atmosphere.

There were 22 Team GB golds but three in particular had the SPOTY markets scrambled. Breakfast time on the first Monday and Tom Daley finally wins a first gold at his 4th Olympics in the synchronised diving with Matty Lee – his price tumbling from 80/1 into around 4/1 (available at 160 and bigger on Betfair a couple of days before the opening ceremony).

After Dina Asher-Smith failed to qualify for the 100m final and withdrew from the 200m, Daley became the new SPOTY favourite.

The market settled down until Laura Kenny won gold with Katie Archibald in a dominant display in the madison on Friday. This, along with an earlier silver in the team pursuit, made Laura the most successful female Olympian (5 golds and 1 silver) and the first to win a gold at three successive Games. She traded as short as evens for a moment on Betfair and Daley was briefly forgotten.

Daley shored up his position by winning bronze in the individual event on Saturday morning. At this point Jason Kenny had drifted out to 100+ on Betfair. He had not been showing his usual big meeting form – he said he was ‘rubbish’ during the team sprint (where he won silver) and ‘struggling’ in the individual sprint (eliminated in the quarter-finals).

Suddenly, surprisingly Kenny then burst into life in the keirin final in the small hours of Sunday morning launching off the front to shock everyone. His gold was his 7th in total going clear of Sir Chris Hoy as Britain’s most successful Olympian of all-time. He became the new SPOTY favourite, also trading around evens on Betfair before settling around the 9/4 mark with the bookies.

The current market looks like this: J Kenny 9/4, Daley 9/4, Peaty 10/1, L Kenny 12/1, Lewis Hamilton 16/1, Mark Cavendish 16/1, Max Whitlock 20/1, Lauren Price 25/1.

The Kennys have made history and the titles of being the most successful male and female Olympians give them a certain gravitas. Jason’s overall record eclipses Laura’s so it seems right that he is shorter in the odds.

There are some warning signs around the likelihood of Jason winning SPOTY though. It has to be noted that in 2016 he won 3 golds, the most by a GB athlete in Rio, yet finished only 10th in SPOTY (Laura was 8th). He’s someone who generally doesn’t seek the limelight and is potentially up against not only Laura but also Cavendish who could still yet prove to be a bigger draw for cycling fans.

Could it be that the market is also overplaying the appeal of the historical feat to voters. After all in 2016 Jason had gone level with Hoy at the top of the all-time list. And Hoy himself in 2012 went clear at the top with his 6 golds in total yet only finished 7th that year (although he had already won it in 2008).

At this stage my feeling is the value lies in Daley. He has a long history with SPOTY being the only person to win Young SPOTY three times (voted for by a panel, rather than the public) in 2007, 2009 and 2010 (when he also finished 6th for the main award with 50k votes).

He has a huge following (2.3m Twitter followers), with a life story that is inspiring to many. The social media hits on his Olympics performances exceed his main SPOTY rivals and he was clear leader in a BBC poll of people’s favourite Tokyo 2020 gold.

His bronze medal in the individual event should secure him a place on the shortlist. Finally winning Olympic gold after all these years provides some of that novelty value that is key in SPOTY winners – he offers something different to his competitors that in some ways are hard to separate from each other. I’d expect a strong VT on the night, some knitting chat, and a desire among the BBC audience to vote for him.

In terms of the rest of the year we have the Paralympics to come which can always provide a good story or two. The world track cycling championships will also take place in October where it may be worth keeping an eye on the Kennys. There is the Ryder Cup too. Hamilton can never be entirely discounted if we wins a record 8th F1 title. But overall there may not be too much opportunity left for others to get involved.

* 3 pts win Tom Daley 9/4 Sky Bet, Betfred, Boyles, 5/2 Bet 365, 11/4 Coral / Ladbrokes

It will be interesting to see how long the shortlist will be this year. In 2016 it was 16 and 2012 it was 12. There is always the possibility of a big priced contender coming with a late charge.

I’d be interested to know if people think I’m being too positive on Daley’s chances as I know some are concerned he may not appeal to a typical SPOTY voter, please feel free to add a comment.

Up until a couple of weeks ago this had been the quietest of starts to a SPOTY year. England’s run to the Euros final and Mark Cavendish’s renaissance in the Tour de France have changed that.

Harry Kane (7/2) and Raheem Sterling (5/1) have replaced long term favourite Dina Asher-Smith (6/1) at the head of the market. Cavendish is in the slip stream at 8/1.

Since the start of the century British sportsmen and women have conquered many events that had previously seemed out of reach for many years. There has been: a two-time Wimbledon champion, multiple Tour de France titles, England cricket and rugby world cup wins, multiple Ashes victories, as well as Olympic gold rushes.

One prize for many though is valued above them all – a major international football championship. England are now marginal favourites (4/5) to beat Italy on Sunday night to win the Euros.

It would be the sporting highlight of the year leading to a likely domination of the awards on SPOTY night. When England won the rugby and cricket world cups it led to clear cut wins in the main award for Jonny Wilkinson and Ben Stokes.

The tricky part is pinpointing who such an individual would be if England were to win. Kane and Sterling have stolen the headlines throughout the tournament and are the most likely to impress on the night.

Kane is on 4 goals, one behind Ronaldo and Schick, so could finish as top scorer. Due to the tie-break rules he would need a goal and two assists to beat Ronaldo to the golden boot. Sterling is on 3 goals.

Sterling is 7/4 favourite to be voted by a panel as best player of the tournament . Kane is 7/2. It is this difference, plus a sense that there is more of story with Sterling – with him growing up in the shadows of Wembley etc – that makes him the more appealing option at the odds.

A European Championship winner who was player of the tournament would be a big vote winner on SPOTY night. Sterling also won the league with Man City which is a small bonus for him too in any end of year write-up.

It’s hard to be too confident – all sorts of drama could yet unfold – but overall he’s probably the most sensible pick as it stands, with Kane also worth a saver in case he denies Sterling player of the tournament.

But there remains a fair chance that England could fall at the final hurdle. Could Kane or Sterling then still win SPOTY? It would seem much more difficult.

Cavendish would then become a very interesting contender if he can level or beat the Tour de France all time stage win record of 34 held by Belgium legend Eddy Merckx. He’s currently on 33 and should have three more sprinting opportunities during the last 10 days of the Tour (assuming he can get through the tough Pyrenees mountain stages in good form). This is a record that has stood since 1975 and has long been considered near unbeatable.

Stage 13 is currently in progress (Friday afternoon) where it’s looking like a sprint finish sometime between 4 and 5pm – so there could be a real chance to level the record today. If he was to do so, his current SPOTY price would disappear.

There is also the last stage on 18 July, finishing on the Champs-Elysees in Paris, that looks suitable for a win. Cavendish has already won there 4 times and has the services of his Quick Step team’s lead out train who would be looking to deliver him to the line in similar style to his 3rd win in this year’s edition:

The Manx missile is a previous SPOTY winner in 2011 when he won the green jersey in the Tour and the world championship. Cyclists have an exceptional SPOTY record in recent times taking the main award 4 times in the last 13 years.

He remains a very popular character, his late call up and comeback this year adding to the appeal after battling Epstein-Barr virus and depression. He had long been written off by most as never to add to his last Tour stage win in 2016.

The complicating factor to all of this is the Olympics coming up in Tokyo – the opening ceremony is on 23 July. A classic SPOTY stat is that in any Olympic year from 2000 the SPOTY winner has won at least one Olympic gold (Redgrave, Holmes, Hoy, Wiggins, Murray).

Other factors have to be taken into account though in the assessment, including the strength of the opposition. There is also some doubt as to whether these Games will capture the public imagination as much as normal with them being played out without fans.

Asher-Smith would be a worthy contender if she could win gold in one or both of the 100m or 200m. She received a boost with the withdrawal of Sha’Carri Richardson in the 100m but still has tough competition in the form of Shelley-Ann Fraser-Pryce and Elaine Thompson-Herah. In the 200m American Gabby Thomas has been setting very quick times. DAS is 4/1 joint second favourite in it with Sky Bet.

Laura Kenny (20/1) is another obvious candidate. She has a chance of three golds in the velodrome. Such a haul would take her to 7 in her career and top all-time above Hoy on 6 and also her husband Jason (depending on if he can add to his 6 golds). This could be appealing to voters. The question would be who might win in a head-to-head with Cavendish.

Katarina Johnson-Thompson (20/1) in the heptathlon is another to keep an eye on although is coming back from injury.

The Olympics, and potentially Paralympics that follow, can also throw up more left-field contenders. As ever they will be worth carefully monitoring.

Overall, at this stage though, I think it’s worth some small bets on the non-Olympians given the history that could be made over the coming days.

* 0.75 pt win Raheem Sterling 5/1 Bet 365, William Hill (6/1 Betfred)

* 0.75 pt win Harry Kane 7/2 William Hill (4/1 Sky Bet, 888 Sport)

* 1 pt win Mark Cavendish 8/1 Coral / Ladbrokes 7/1 William Hill, Bet 365

An incredible day at the world snooker championships ended yesterday evening with Ronnie O’Sullivan chinning Mark Selby on the line to win their semi final 17-16. He plays Kyren Wilson in the final starting today at 1.30 pm, where he is the 3/10 favourite.

Ronnie was trailing 16-14 but went on to rattle off three frames in a row in swashbuckling style.

He’s now got a great chance to win his sixth world title to go just one behind Stephen Hendry. In terms of career ranking titles he’d go one ahead of the Scot to a record 37.

The Rocket is a hugely popular character amongst snooker fans with his quickfire play and unusual brand of charisma.

He burst on the scene as a teenager in the 90s, instantly becoming a favourite, and to many he’s the greatest snooker player of all time.

But he’s never even made the SPOTY shortlist. Surely this would change with victory on Sunday (assuming SPOTY goes ahead), particularly in a year with limited sporting stories.

There would be strong motivation to vote for Ronnie amongst his army of fans (and potentially multiple times) with an element of wanting to reward him for his achievements in the sport throughout his career.

Followers of the site are already covered on Lewis Hamilton at bigger prices. With the potential for O’Sullivan to out poll him and go favourite, he should also be added to the book. A cheap cover can be made on Wilson to win the title.

* 2.5 pts Ronnie O’Sullivan 5/1 William Hill, Bet 365, Betfred

* 0.75 pts Kyren Wilson to win the world championship 13/5 Paddy Power, Betfred, Betway

Let’s hope SPOTY gets the green light this year. If it doesn’t go ahead all SPOTY stakes should be refunded.

Here we are then. Sport is gradually coming back but we don’t know if SPOTY will go ahead this year. Back in May, BBC Sport said it will make a decision later in the summer. As the world comes round to a ‘new normal’, it may be that a SPOTY of some form does go ahead. Who knows when things will be fully like they were before and plenty of sport should hopefully have taken place by December, albeit without this year’s blockbuster events.

For the last few years SPOTY has taken place on the Sunday night after the Strictly final on the Saturday. With the latter now slated for 19 December it could be that any SPOTY is on the 20th. This is all just guess work.

Betting wise, if SPOTY 2020 doesn’t go ahead, all stakes should be refunded by bookies and the exchange markets voided. So we might as well have a look at the odds.

Tyson Fury remains a worthy favourite at 6/4 after he beat Deontay Wilder in February. The Gypsy King has never been more popular. Fury-Wilder III is lined up and there is talk this could land on Saturday 19 December. It’s hard to be confident with boxing scheduling at the best of times but that slot could be a sweet spot for SPOTY voting. The negatives for Fury are that these Wilder fights are nothing new and there is the ultimate showdown with Anthony Joshua due for 2021.

All the talk in the last month has been about Marcus Rashford (5/2, 2/1 general) and his campaign leading to a government u-turn on providing free school meals through the summer. Rashford has a huge following and, if he made the shortlist and the vote was tomorrow, he would likely win by some way. The criteria the panel use to decide who is on the shortlist is supposed to reflect UK sporting achievement, so there is a fair chance others would be ahead of him on this count. Man United have chances to win the FA Cup (9/2) and the Europa League (11/4) though. He has cut through more than any sportsperson this year and you can never rule out a panel wanting to include him. Is there be a fair chance he is acknowledged in the show away from the main award, especially if his club ends up trophy-less?

Jordan Henderson (10/1) is one footballer who should be ahead of Rashford on sporting achievement having captained Liverpool to their first title in 30 years. He’s around 11/4 to win PFA player of the year and also has a chance to win the football writers’ player of the year. But doubts remain in general about how well footballers poll on the night.

The Formula 1 season starts this weekend, with a rejigged schedule. At the moment only 8 races (the minimum number of races required for a season to be considered complete) have been announced, in a condensed run of races ending with the Italian grand prix on 6 September. F1 hopes to schedule more races (15-18 in total) and is confident of ending the season in Abu Dhabi. It currently aims for this to be in December.

Lewis Hamilton is the 4/7 favourite for the title. While it is unclear quite how the F1 season will end up looking, I think the SPOTY stalwart looks the best value (14/1, 12/1 general) at this stage. He has finished second the last two years, having beaten Dina Asher-Smith and Harry Kane, so remains popular. If he won the F1 title this year he would join Michael Schumacher as joint top all-time with seven in total.

A December end to the season could be good timing. Another potential positive for the Mercedes veteran is that he has been in the news speaking out for racial equality, setting up his commission, and that could continue to strike a chord.

Overall, with enough doubts about the rest of the field, and subject to caveats surrounding the unpredictability of the sporting schedule, the health of those involved and whether anyone actually cares about sport anymore, Hamilton’s price looks big enough to be a bet. For those wanting a bit of cover, his main F1 challengers can be backed for the title. The hope is that a Hamilton championship would see his SPOTY odds crash.

Other potential players to keep an eye on this year could be Ronnie O’Sullivan, Frankie Dettori and Chris Froome.

* 1pt Lewis Hamilton 14/1 Sky Bet, 12/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

* 0.4pts Verstappen 4/1 general; 0.1 pts Bottas 9/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power; 0.1 pts Leclerc Bet 365 9/1, 15/2 Ladbrokes/ Coral; 0.1 pts Vettel Bet 365 18/1, 14/1 general all for the F1 title.

What do you reckon? Please feel free to comment if you’ve any thoughts on the year that may not be.

After last year’s break from the norm when the shortlist was named on SPOTY night, the BBC reverted to its traditional reveal three weeks out from the show. This took me by surprise, as did the inclusion of Raheem Sterling (22/1) and Alun Wyn Jones (22/1), alongside the expected names of Ben Stokes (1/6 fav), Dina Asher-Smith (12/1), Lewis Hamilton (25/1) and Katarina Johnson-Thompson (80/1). Details of their achievements this year are on the BBC site. The show is on the evening of Sunday 15 December.

The write-up for Sterling noted that, ‘..it is his rise to become an unofficial spokesman for a generation of footballers on race, class, society and the media that has people asking whether Sterling is the most important sportsperson in Britain right now’. This showed that it was the mix of social and sporting achievement that secured his nomination, a combination not normally seen in the shortlist for the main award. When including non-sporting factors though it does complicate the selection process. For example, it could be argued, particularly if the panel was keen to continue to promote female sports, that Lucy Bronze may have deserved a place on the shortlist based on sporting achievement (Champions League winner, Silver Ball in the world cup, 2nd in Ballon D’or).

Of course the key question for betting purposes is how well will Sterling poll. At this stage there doesn’t look to be too much evidence that his important stance against racism will translate into a flood of votes. It may be that support gathers momentum in the days leading up to the show and will be something to keep an eye on.

Alun Wyn Jones was the other surprise and the Welsh vote always has to be respected. There is a long tradition of the Welsh getting behind their heroes – last year Geraint Thomas added to relatively recent SPOTYs Joe Calzaghe and Ryan Giggs. And of a similar profile to Wyn Jones was Leigh Halfpenny, runner-up to Andy Murray in 2013 at a big price. The power of this vote could be underestimated and kick in on the night, although there may be a limit to high it could go – it’s worth bearing in mind that Halfpenny’s 66,000 votes is below average for 2nd place.

Anyway.. Stokes looks nailed on. His two innings six weeks apart this summer to help England win the world cup and keep the Ashes alive at Headlingley will always be remembered. Both were absorbing occasions where the stakes couldn’t have been higher. I’ve not seen sporting drama quite like it.

Unfortunately for bettors it leaves the market somewhat dead compared to other years. Followers of the advice on this site have a minor interest in Stokes at 50/1 pre-world cup final so are positioned for a small profit on the year.

Trying to predict who will finish second and third is something I’m not finding straight-forward and have low confidence in. Asher-Smith with her gold and two silvers at the world championships is ahead of Johnson-Thompson that is for sure. But it is difficult to guess just how much better she will poll compared to last year’s 4th behind Thomas, Hamilton and Harry Kane. Her profile is increasing year on year so she should do fairly well.

While he offers nothing new, and it bores me to say it, with doubts about how all will fare bar Stokes, it may be worth a small bet on Hamilton in the ‘without Stokes’ and top 3 markets. He always has a solid base of support and it may be enough. He also finished 2nd behind Stokes in the Sports Journalism Awards.

The World Sport Star (WSS) and Greatest Sporting Moment (GSM) shortlists have also been announced. There’s is only a small window until 9am Friday 6 December to vote for these (online, one vote per person, from UK only). I was holding out for more bookies to price these up like last year but unfortunately it seems Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power are on their own (these markets should close when the vote closes on the 6th). The fancy prices have gone but the 3/1 for Eliud Kipchoge may still represent some value given the uniqueness of his success in going under 2 hours for the marathon, albeit in contrived circumstances with the assistance of pacemakers.

GSM looks to be between the two cricket contenders. A world cup win for England in a major sport is a rarity so looks very strong. A poll in a tweet from @englandcricket showed 69% choosing the world cup final over 31% for Headingley.

* 0.25 pt win Lewis Hamilton without Stokes 5/1 Bet365 9/2 Ladbrokes / Coral

* 0.5 pt win Lewis Hamilton top 3 11/8 Bet365 6/5 Sky Bet

* 1 pt win Eliud Kipchoge World Sport Star 3/1 Betfair Sportsbook / Paddy Power

* 2.5 pt win Jos Buttler breaks the stumps to seal world cup victory 8/11 Betfair Sportsbook / Paddy Power

I’ll post again if any further markets or value appear between now and the 15th. If you’ve any thoughts, particularly on that battle for 2nd and 3rd, please feel free to comment.