SPOTY season burst into life last week following Tyson Fury’s draw against Deontay Wilder and the announcement of the 2018 Greatest Sporting Moment (GSM) and World Sport Star (WSS) shortlists.

The fight has enthused boxing fans with many having Fury as the winner on points but it was his remarkable recovery in the final round that lit up social media:

There is an appealing comeback factor to the Gypsy King following all the problems he’s had and he appears to have won many sports fans and the media over.

The SPOTY panel apparently reconvened specially to add his 12^th round revival to the GSM list. The key question is – is he on the shortlist for the main award? For the first time this will be revealed on the night, in the show itself.

He’s arguably had more impact on the public than anyone this year but for sporting achievement it must be doubtful as to whether he’s done enough – a draw is a draw. If the panel included him there’s a fair possibility he would win the big prize. This doesn’t seem desirable given that the heavyweight boxing division is on the cusp of some further blockbuster fights with both Anthony Joshua and Fury in striking distance of being undisputed champion. It would seem better from a SPOTY brand point of view to save the possibility of Fury winning SPOTY until later after a win.

It’s the inaugural GSM this year so we don’t really know much about what any nominations here can tell us about who’s on the shortlist for the main award. But I can’t help but think that adding Fury to the GSM list was the panel’s way of recognising him this year and that will be sufficient.

This hasn’t stopped a load of money wanting to back Fury on the exchange both to win (now around 9.6 on Betfair (went out to around 20-40 directly after the result of the fight was called)) and top 3 (4.0). There’s an entrenched battle between those who see him as the man to vote for and those who are sceptical he’ll make the cut. It may be that many casual punters are not fully aware of the shortlist element, with layers taking the risk that he’ll line up on the 16^th.

With the Wilder bout fresh in the memory in it looks worth a bet for Fury at 3/1 to topple the England football team for the GSM (the full list is here). Their world cup penalty shootout win against Colombia is favourite at around evens. While it was a stand out moment this year, attracting huge viewing figures, it’s not actually that impressive a feat. Social media possibly suggests more motivation to vote among England netball fans for their last second Commonwealth gold win over favourites Australia – at 7/1 they look worth a small play too. Voting is done by registering online and closes on Friday.

The WSS contenders are here. Simone Biles is the odds-on favourite. Votes can be logged from overseas for the award but Francesco Molinari and his perfect Ryder Cup should appeal to domestic voters who may still make up the majority and his 3/1 may be a shade of value.

The main award is looking a very competitive heat. There are four contenders trading under 10 which I haven’t known before.

Normally a week out from SPOTY there would be a variety of polls in various publications that would influence the market and give some indication but with no concrete shortlist to work from these are absent at the moment.

The BBC have said that the shortlist will be smaller than it has been previously. There’s room for a wildcard or two, and nothing is certain, but the following six look to have strong claims to be involved: Harry Kane, Geraint Thomas, Lewis Hamilton, Dina Asher-Smith, Lizzy Yarnold and Adam Peaty.

In August I covered the relative merits of Kane and Thomas and much of it still applies. The market then moved decisively in favour of Thomas. Kane’s late winner against Croatia at the end of November put a spanner in the works of those who have followed the advice on the site. Since then Kane has eased his way back to the front of the market (now around 2.72). Just before England turned around the one-nil deficit in that match, Kane had gone out to around 5.0 and if England had been relegated from their Nations League group I think it would have scuppered his SPOTY chances. As it is they’ve been rejuvenated.

By winning the group it puts a more positive light on England’s year and reflects better on their world cup performance. Baddiel, Skinner and the Lightning Seeds are booked in for the show and Gareth Southgate and his team will be celebrated. It could be that the public go along with this and in a close contest carry Kane home. But it may not be that clear cut. It remains the case that England’s World Cup run was unspectacular (losing three games) and there is doubt about how universally popular Kane is. Kane’s teams didn’t win anything and the Nations League semis and final are next year.

Thomas is still in with a good chance and my view is that he represents the best value as it stands at 5/2. Last week he won the Sports Journalists’ Association (SJA) sportsman of the year award which can be a reasonable indicator of SPOTY success (although voting for it opens in mid-October so it doesn’t fully account for events since then). As expected he also won Welsh SPOTY and if the Welsh and cycling fans get behind him on the night (as they have both done frequently in past editions) he can still poll very well.

Hamilton (11/2) a mainstay on recent SPOTY nights. He’ll get solid loyal support and it may be that last year his vote was dampened somewhat by the tax avoidance stories that came out around this time. The lack of novelty about another F1 title though may make it tricky for him to poll enough to win it for a second time.

Asher-Smith (20/1) won the Sunday Times and also the SJA sportswoman of the year award. She’s had an outstanding breakout year and is the clear top female chance ahead of Yarnold. The BBC would be pleased if she got on the podium as it broadcast the European championships and she looks set to become a poster girl for the worlds and Olympics coming up in 2019 and 2020 which will be on the channel. She’s got the look of a future SPOTY winner and should charm viewers when interviewed on the night.

Peaty’s (50/1) had a another excellent season breaking his own world record in Glasgow and picking up a raft of golds. He polled higher than Hamilton last year so can’t be fully discounted to do reasonably well again if he’s shortlisted.

I’ll keep an eye out for any further markets and bets as the week progresses in the build up to the big night and will add any thoughts on twitter or in the comments. It will be intriguing how the market reacts in-play once the shortlist is revealed – there could be some price swings. If you’ve any thoughts on how things will play out  please feel free to comment – the market suggests an open year and there could be a few different points of view around.

My selections for the year can be found here, with the following added today:

* 1pt win Tyson Fury comeback in 12th round to win GSM 3/1 William Hill, 5/2 Ladbrokes / Coral

* 1pt win England netball Commonwealth gold to win GSM 7/1 William Hill

* 1pt win Francesco Molinari to win WSS 3/1 William Hill

* 2pts win Geraint Thomas to win SPOTY 5/2 Paddy Power, Betfred

Followers of the site are relying on Thomas to get it done with Asher-Smith as an outside hope – she could be in with a good podium shout and could be a bet if some more top 3 markets become available.

Lastly, as usual here’s a look at some of the minimum prices traded on Betfair this year: Kane 1.44, Thomas 2.36, Hamilton 5.0, Fury 4.9, Asher-Smith 5.6, Alastair Cook 9.0, Yarnold 9.2, Anthony Joshua 3.15, Jordan Pickford 6.2, Chris Froome 13, Elise Christie 9.2, Rory McIlroy 10.0, Phil Taylor 5.6.

There is a brief window to get Rory McIlroy in the book today – prices may go quite quickly.

At 19:40 UK time McIlroy tees off at Augusta trying to overhaul his three-shot deficit to playing partner Patrick Reed and win the Masters. He’s 3.1 on Betfair exchange to do so.

A win would complete the set of major golf titles (the career grand slam) for McIlroy – something that has only been done by five other players, and only Tiger Woods in the last 30 years. So it would be a special achievement.

The northern Irishman famously blew a four-shot lead at the Masters in 2011 and has been looking for redemption ever since. In Reed he faces a formidable opponent. Although he’s yet to win a major he’s considered to have the temperament and game to win one soon. Reed and McIlroy have history too. Reed beat McIlroy by one hole in a fiery battle at the 2016 Ryder Cup so it looks set for an entertaining evening ahead.

While he is up against it somewhat and challengers could still spring from the pack behind, if Rory was to win tonight it’s easy to imagine his SPOTY price going very short. To give some indication Danny Willett traded at 6.2 when winning the Masters in 2016 and that was an Olympic year. The career slam aspect to this would add a crucial extra level to the achievement.

McIlroy should remain in the news through the rest of the year with chances of other major and big tournament wins including the Ryder Cup in Paris in September.

I still have Anthony Joshua as a real threat this year if he can unify the heavyweight division but that means a fight with Deontay Wilder and that is far from guaranteed at this stage.

* 1.5 point win Rory McIlroy 12/1 Coral / Ladbrokes, 10/1 Bet 365, Unibet, Winner

* 1 point lay Rory McIlory on Betfair Exchange at 3.1 (liability 2.1 points) for the Masters

There was shock all round as Kenny Dalglish revealed this year’s top 3. And Mo Farah winning wasn’t the biggest – Anthony Joshua was gubbed at the minimum price of 1.01 on Betfair to make the podium.

The Mo-Rea-Peacock 1-2-3 announcement was music to the ears of followers of the site – Mo was flagged up back in the spring at 25/1 and twice at 40/1. After the disappointment of the Chris Froome failed drugs test news, I was happy enough to see the more recent pick of Jonathan Rea land a place, so to then have the winner was a bonus.

It was pleasing to avoid getting drawn into the AJ and Lewis Hamilton hype (and Jermain Defoe earlier in the year) as they always seemed too short in the betting. But with their prices remaining stubbornly low it was easy to think they’d be right up there in the voting. As it happened it was a blanket finish with less than five percentage points covering the top six from Mo with 15.3% to Hamilton with 11.1% (the full numbers are here).

In hindsight there were perhaps some warning signs around AJ and Hamilton as they showed as being in with the pack in some of the polls. Without the inhaler story my feeling remains that Froome would have been top 3 and, looking at the results now, I think a likely winner.

There was simply a lack of novelty in contenders’ achievements at the top of the market which, with Froome weakened, made things precarious.

The edit and presentation during the show could have made some crucial differences. It was interesting to note that the top 3 all had solo segments on the show whereas Peaty with Kane, Froome with Hamilton and Walkden with AJ had to share theirs. The middle pair’s segment seemed particularly downbeat.

Peacock would have benefitted from his Strictly run and Rea had a strong campaign behind him. I thought Mo’s VT was the most striking and the lifetime achievement aspect to it clearly helped him. His amusingly chaotic interview with his son may have too. It was nice to see Mo’s delight and shock at winning it after all these years. Running must be the most competitive sport of them all and his achievements (subject to the usual drug caveats) are exceptional.

The final tally for 2017 was a profit of 92.44 points with a ROI of 428.95%. (The full betting results breakdown can be found here.) It was a pleasure to hit such a big priced winner for a decent sized stake (especially after being on Mo for so many years) and I hope followers have enjoyed collecting some bumper profits. Not all years will be like that, that’s for sure. Merry Christmas and see you next year.

Paul

The last few weeks have seen a flurry of activity in the SPOTY markets, providing some unexpected trading opportunities.

The biggest threat to Anthony Joshua, the long time market leader, came from Johanna Konta. The prospect of a first British Wimbledon winner for 40 years had bookies cutting Konta’s SPOTY price time and again as her run deep into the second week captured the public’s imagination. Konta hit as low as 4.0 on Betfair before she was eventually knocked out in the semis by Venus Williams.

There was another plunge at the same time on Jermain Defoe. The popular striker received praise during his part in helping young Bradley Lowery make the best of his final months before passing away at the start of July. Defoe broke down in a press conference talking about his pal and there has been a wave of goodwill towards him. Social media had plenty of messages saying that JD should win SPOTY.

Defoe and Konta shook AJ out of his long term position around the 1.5 mark, pushing him and nearer and nearer evens. Konta’s exit saw a sharp adjustment in Joshua’s price:

Defoe’s addition to the market is an interesting one. While it is understandable that many want to see him win SPOTY, the recent criteria for making the shortlist appear to suggest that sporting achievement is required first and foremost. Unless Defoe goes on an incredible goal scoring run, it looks tricky for a panel to leave out other arguably more deserving contenders on sporting achievement. There is also the Helen Rollason award (for outstanding achievement in the face of adversity) and there is the possibility it goes to Bradley with Defoe picking it up on his behalf on the night.

Andy Murray’s early exit in the Wimbledon quarters has seen his odds drift to around 200 on Betfair. Some punters may be forgetting though that both Konta and Murray still have the US Open (and prestigious end of year tournaments) to come where a win (Konta is 9/1, Murray 11/2) for either of them would surely see a substantial contraction in price again.

So for the time being it looks like it is wide open for two of the spaces in the top 3. Recent world class performances from Chris Froome, Adam Peaty, Tom Daley, and Anja Shrubsole have generated support. But there are doubts about them all with Froome notoriously appearing to lack the popularity (finished 6th twice) to match his phenomenal results in the Tour De France.

After the British and Irish Lions came away from New Zealand with one and a half tests and an impressive drawn series, I thought leading series points scorer, European player of the year and Six Nations winner Owen Farrell might have a fair chance. But the market has cooled and those mentioned above have leapfrogged.

The World Athletics Championships in London is coming up but genuine GB medal chances are few and far between. Laura Muir, who has been around the top of the SPOTY market since its inception, is 12/1 with Paddy Power to win her strongest event the 1,500m, giving an idea of the challenge ahead.

Whisper it, but maybe the door is ajar for Mo Farah. He’s evens with Paddy Power to complete his usual double and if that was to happen, by default at least, he may be able to poll top 3. How much of a boost he might get for it being his last season on the track and the championships being in London is a matter of speculation. Or perhaps those doping allegations will keep him anchored.

Lewis Hamilton is another not to be discounted in the absence of strong contenders. He was 5th when he last won the F1 title but he has always polled higher than Mo when going head to head and has that superstar factor. He’s evens to win his fouth championship this season.

There’s still a long way to go. Recent years have seen late springers from the pack – last year Alistair Brownlee, 2015 Kevin Sinfield and Tyson Fury, 2013 Leigh Halfpenny – so all of a sudden the picture can change.

AJ is rightly well clear of the field. We’re still waiting for confirmination of the Klitschko rematch. If, as anticipated he retains his titles in Vegas in November, it all looks set for SPOTY the following month. In this game though there’s always the possiblity of things not going to plan and with that come opportunities.

How do you see things so far? Think Defoe could make the shortlist? How’s the rest of the year going to play out? Please feel free to comment if you’ve any thoughts.