Here we are again with a sub 1.2 SPOTY favourite and another England women’s footballer in Mary Earps (1.17 on Betfair) poised to claim the crown, following Beth Mead last year.

The shortlist was announced last week – the other contenders are Stuart Broad (10/1), Katarina Johnson-Thompson (20/1), Frankie Dettori (33/1), Alfie Hewett (66/1) and Rory McIlroy (150/1). The show is on BBC1 tonight at 7pm.

It’s been far from the strongest year with the nominees having not actually won that much on the field between them – KJT and Hewett perhaps the main exceptions to that.

In terms of the two market leaders, Earps’ England lost the World Cup final and Broad’s England could not reclaim the Ashes.

When the England men lost in the Euro final in 2021 Raheem Sterling was shortlisted but didn’t even make the SPOTY podium. When Harry Kane won the golden boot at the World Cup in 2018 he finished 3rd.

The Lionesses appear to have much more cut-through, inspiring large sections of the population, without the same club partisanship that seems to hold back the men on SPOTY night. Earps is very popular with a big following. This year she has won a raft of personal awards including World Cup golden glove, BBC Women’s Footballer of the Year, Sunday Times Sportswoman of the Year and Sports Journalists’ Association Sportswoman of the Year. She also did some swearing on the pitch and replicas of her goalie jersey weren’t available and then sold out.

Broad decided to retire during the final Ashes Test. He then hit a six off his last ball and took a wicket with his last delivery to win the match and level the Ashes. He ended up on 604 career Test wickets, 5th in the all-time list. There’s a lifetime achievement element to his nomination.

As there is to Dettori’s, although he’s now not actually fully retired, going back on his previous announcement. He’s had a good year though winning some of the biggest races of the season. There’s not much evidence the wider public has picked up on this at all and his chances of the podium rely on campaigning from those in racing. They have had successful campaigns before with Hollie Doyle making the podium in 2020 but so far there appears less appetite to give Frankie as much of a leg-up this time round.

It’s easy to admire KJT and her battles to reach the top in heptathlon. She was successful this year in her comeback from injury to win gold at the World Championships.

Alfie Hewett has a had a great year in wheelchair tennis. He won’t be well known amongst the public but could have an inspiring VT on the show.

Rory McIlroy appears to be making up the numbers having been part of the dominant European Ryder Cup team but has had another year without winning a major.

Overall Earps and Broad look the most voter friendly, with a small bet on Hewett top 3 in case his VT connects.

* 2 pts Earps-Broad forecast 4/5 Sky Bet

* 0.25 pts Hewett top 3 3/1 general

Good luck tonight. Back next year when hopefully the Olympics and Euros can add a bit more depth to the markets.