state of play

Leaving the footballers to one side for a second, could we be in for a 2017 type close finish this year?

Ronnie O’Sullivan heads the market at 3/1 after equaling Stephen Hendry’s seven world championships in May. This is a significant record for a popular character but enthusiasm for a SPOTY win is tempered by him not making the podium in 2020 after receiving a nomination for the first time. He was up against SPOTY heavyweight Lewis Hamilton and two campaign contenders in Jordan Henderson and Hollie Doyle in that year though. He also has opportunities for further tournament wins this year, of which the UK Championship in November is the most significant. Overall, the impression is that he doesn’t set the highest bar.

Jake Wightman (8/1) was not even listed in SPOTY books before his shock win at the 1500m at the World Athletics Championships in Eugene, Oregon where he beat the Olympic champion Jakob Ingebrigtsen, He is an interesting contender this year, assisted by the popular side-story of his dad calling him home as the stadium announcer:

It can be difficult for world athletics champions to win SPOTY – for example, Dina Asher-Smith came third and Katarina Johnson-Thompson didn’t make the podium in 2019 and Jessica Ennis-Hill was third in 2015 . This year is unusual though in that there are three major championships, with Wightman having the chance to further his medal haul at the Commonwealth Games (in Birmingham, where he will represent Scotland) and the European Championships.

A mention should also be given to rising star Keely Hogkinson (33/1) who landed a valiant silver in the 800m, narrowly beaten by American Athing Mu. She will find things much easier for the remainder of the summer.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (20/1) won the US Open but golfers who win one of the US majors (as opposed to the Open) have struggled to poll highly; as have English cricketers who have had excellent seasons, which makes it tricky for Joe Root (33/1) and Jonny Bairstow (25/1). A T20 World Cup win in November would be of assistance to the latter.

Tyson Fury (12/1) would likely again rule himself out of actively participating in any show and has polled poorly recently. While he has said he has retired, it seems he could easily schedule a new fight at any time – a big fight win later in the year would make things a bit more interesting. Given recent history, there must be some doubt he would make any shortlist as things stand.

There is one current event that could become a sporting highlight this year in England and that is if the Lionesses win the Euros at home They have reached the semi finals and are 13/8 to win the tournament. Nine million watched the quarter-final victory over Spain.

As ever with team sports, if England were to win, it is difficult to predict who the stand out performer would be, and much may depend on the final itself. Beth Mead (8/1) leads the way at the moment as the clear top scorer in the tournament so far with 5. If she did win the golden boot, alongside an England triumph, she could become a short-priced SPOTY favourite.

Ellen White (33/1) is one goal behind Wayne Rooney’s England record of 53. She has two so far in this tournament. The difficulty for her is that she has been somewhat outshone by substitute Alessia Russo (not seen a price listed) and there must be doubt about her starting place.

Earlier in the year I’d been keen on an each way bet at around 50/1 on Adam Peaty given the three big swimming championships this year. He then broke his foot in training ruling him out of the worlds. He has now fought back to fitness, declaring himself ready for the Commonwealth Games, and is in the squad for the European Aquatics Championships in Rome that follow. There is some doubt as to whether he has had enough time to be at his very best but he has a chance of four golds (50m, 100m breaststroke, 100m medley and mixed) in Birmingham which he is calling his home Games (not far from Uttoxeter where he grew up).

In Rome Peaty is scheduled to clash with Nicolo Martinenghi, who took his 100m world title in his absence, so has the chance of some redemption, as well as further golds in his other events.

While these two championships are not the most illustrious in the sport, Peaty’s profile has increased in the last year, and given the potential that the footballers may not triumph, he could poll fairly well against some of his competitors if he makes the shortlist. At 100/1 (80/1 general) he is worth a small each way bet, mainly in the hope of sneaking a place.

There is always scope for further contenders to emerge unexpectedly at a late stage – notable examples from other years include Jordan Henderson, Hollie Doyle, Jonathan Rea, Jonnie Peacock, Kevin Sinfield and of course Emma Raducanu. The World Cup could be a game-changer but it does look optimistic to think England (or Wales) could win in Qatar.

In terms of scheduling, the World Cup final is on Sunday 18 December, the same day that SPOTY would typically be. In order to avoid a clash, there is talk that SPOTY will be pushed back slightly to be held mid-week once the tournament was over.

* Adam Peaty 0.5 pts each way 100/1 (Coral / Ladbrokes, 80/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power)

3 thoughts on “state of play”

  1. Great write up as always, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Agree with pretty much everything you have written!

    I’m surprised there is no mention of Hollie Doyle though – I think she has a great chance at a big price (first female British jockey to win a classic). We know that our PC friends at the Beeb will try and have at least one or two women in the final line up and the Horse Racing vote is huge should she make the cut.

    Women’s football – Like you say it’s difficult to pick who will be nominated – I’ve been backing Leah Williamson at big prices as I think if there is uncertainty then the spot will go the Captain. Would rather her at 40/1 than the 8/1 Beth Mead.

    I have backed three contenders this year at big prices – Ronnie O Sullivan, Mark Cavendish and Cameron Norrie. Feel a little aggrieved that Cavendish was not selected for the tour and my point is proved with Jakobsen performing so poorly. Cav would have won a stage IMO and now be favourite for SPOTY – but such is life!

    Cameron Norrie was available at 33/1 when only 8/1 for Wimbledon title which looked like a great bet at the time.

    I still have Ronnie at 100/1 and 80/1 for decent stakes but as you say in your opening paragraph, I really can’t see him winning and 3/1 is a terrible price now.

    I will be following the football (Women and Men) very closely as it looks likely that one of the winners will come from that Sport this year.

    Good luck and I look forward to seeing your next write up.

    1. Hi Fred – plenty has happened since our posts above! Mead as player of the Euros and golden boot winner does look the obvious Lioness selection for the shortlist. She also has a chance of making the Ballon D’Or Feminin podium (announced on 17 October).

      It really does seem wide open for the other places – it might not take many votes at all to finish 2nd or 3rd. Hollie would definitely be one to look for if making the shortlist. Eve Muirhead has announced her retirement this week, which should give her a bit of a voting boost – looks a likely shortlist selection.

      Happy enough with the Peaty selection – he just wasn’t ready. If he had been in top form think he would have been a podium contender. He’ll be back.

      Nice work on those big Ronnie prices, hope you managed to trade a bit out.

      Thought the same re Cav – Jakobsen clearly didn’t get through the mountains in any shape at all. Hope Cav gets one more chance but time is running out.

      Dan Evans and Jack Draper also in good form in the tennis. Not easy to win the US Open though (but we’ve said that before!).

  2. Yes, a lot has changed and sadly things look rather sewn up now with Beth Mead! I bit the bullet and backed her when Popp withdrew albeit at 5/2 and smallish stakes as that wasn’t a price I wanted to get stuck in to.

    I’m actually surprised she isn’t a shorter price. 1.58 on Betfair as I write this seems very generous as surely only England Men winning the World Cup can put up a contender to her. I would have her around the 1.3 mark.

    As you say, bit of fun to be had in looking for a big EW price Top 3 now. 50/1 EW Jake Wightman with Coral and Ladbrokes looks worth a dabble. I think the BBC will want an athlete in the final 6 and for me it was the fun moment of the games with his Dad commentating.

    Unlucky with Peaty – as you say he could very easily have won the lot and I think you had a good value EW bet there.

    Hope you can find a couple of good selections in the run-in, good luck!

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