Category Archives: Hot list

hot list updated – Rory’s year and what it means for SPOTY

Not much to say in many ways. The hot and cold colour coding below speaks for itself!

Rory has been outstanding this summer since his break up from Caroline Wozniacki (he himself says it has helped him focus on his golf and she is also doing well since, having just dumped Maria Sharapova out of the US Open).

No-one deserves to win SPOTY more this year after his two major wins (with the Ryder Cup still to come) – although I am sure he doesn’t care about winning a popularity contest.

On the eve of the USPGA he was actually the same best price to win that tournament (22/1) as he was to win SPOTY. There were some good opportunities to trade on both markets during the tournament but I was bit slow on the uptake eventually getting on a bit late in the day.

I’m sure the winner has been decided but there will still be good opportunities to look for value in the place markets and the without-McIlroy markets which I will update on in the coming months.

Ralph Ellis makes some good points in this Betfair article but in that year Ryan Giggs was up against Jenson Button and I am not convinced that this generation of F1 drivers capture the imagination as they did say twenty years ago. Also a campaign for Jonny Wilkinson may not be as strong as that for Giggs for a couple of reasons, mainly that he has already won the award before in 2003.

Rory McIlroy 1/6

Lewis Hamilton 7/1

Andy Murray 100/1

Jonny Wilkinson 22/1

Jo Pavey 33/1

Gareth Bale 100/1

Carl Froch 50/1

Claudia Fragapane 33/1

 

 

 

hot list updated

A real shake up in the market with Andy Murray and Chris Froome going out in spectacular fashion just as their odds were significantly contracting. It really does seem the award that no-one wants to win.

This has led to Jonny Wilkinson and Carl Frock being well backed.

We covered ourselves on Murray and Froome by laying them for their respective events to come out of it all unscathed. We have Gareth Bale and Mo Farah running for us and their prices have naturally come in a bit.

Wilkinson is the really interesting one and we will have to keep an eye on him. For now we will keep a watching brief but there is still all to play for in this market with Lewis Hamilton still at the head of affairs after a successful British GP.

Lewis Hamilton 13/8 F1 Champion

Gareth Bale 25/1 Won European Cup scoring the winning goal

Jonny Wilkinson 6/1 F1 Retired after a stellar career 

Mo Farah 25/1 Winning gold(s) at the Commonwealth Games

Carl Froch 8/1 Super middleweight Champion

Rory McIlroy 20/1 Win a major and be a key part of a Ryder Cup win

Andy Murray 33/1 US Open Champion

Lizzy Yarnold 25/1 Won Winter Olympic gold medal

hot list updated

No major surprise that England are out of the World Cup although maybe a bit earlier than expected. This removes Steven Gerrard from the list once and for all.

Chris Froome and Andy Murray’s odds are coming in all the time. I think Murray is still a good wager at 12s given that he is a best priced 4/1 to win Wimbledon, which I also think is a good price. Murray is arguably the best grass court player in the world, assuming he doesn’t have any major injury concerns. These next few weeks will have a significant impact on the SPOTY market.

If neither Froome or Murray wins their respective events then it opens the way somewhat for Mo Farah to maybe have a say or another, as yet unknown, contender at big prices.

Lewis Hamilton 7/4 F1 Champion

Chris Froome 5/1 Tour de France winner

Andy Murray 12/1 Wimbledon / US Open Champion

Mo Farah 50/1 Winning gold(s) at the Commonwealth Games

Rory McIlroy 20/1 Win a major and be a key part of a Ryder Cup win

Gareth Bale 20/1 Won European Cup scoring the winning goal

Jonny Wilkinson 18/1 Retired after a stellar career

Carl Froch 16/1 Super Middleweight Champion

Lizzy Yarnold 25/1 Won Winter Olympic gold medal

hot list updated

It’s been an quite an interesting couple of weeks with some springers in the market.

Jonny Wilkinson retired. He’s had a fantastic career and is a very honourable and admirable individual. An old-fashioned sportsman in many respects. I’d imagine the market is thinking along the lines of Ryan Giggs winning the award back in 2009. I think, though, it’s safe to rule him out of the reckoning – by December I can’t imagine many remembering him bowing out.

Carl Froch won the rematch against George Groves at Wembley Stadium.

Gareth Bale won the European Cup, or Champions League as the kids like to call it these days. He also had an instrumental part to play, scoring the crucial goal in extra time of the final to put Real Madrid 2-1 up. He’s a genuinely wonderful and captivating footballer.

As it stands, Bale, Froch and Lizzy Yarnold, are essentially (bar Rory McIlroy winning the BMW) the only contenders in the list below to have won anything of real note so far. Bale is widely available at 20/1.

I am struggling to ignore this price I have to say. There are many reasons why I think it is a decent each way bet. First and foremost he has been at the forefront of Real Madrid winning one of the biggest prizes in football.

It is entirely feasible that during the next few months no British sportsperson wins much. Andy Murray could easily, indeed is likely to, come away empty handed this season. Lewis Hamilton may not win the F1 title (although is quite likely too, however, as I will mention in another post at some point, I am not convinced one can be too confident about him having a SPOTY winning profile). And it would be surprising if England did anything at the World Cup. Chris Froome must have a very good chance of winning the Tour for a second successive year (is odds-on now) and Mo Farah should win gold at the Commonwealth Games at the end of July. There is of course room for a left field contender. I can’t see cricket capturing the imagination too much this summer though but possibly it could come from the Ryder Cup or Commonwealth Games.

By December there could easily be no stand out performer, at which point Bale’s credentials will seem attractive. Even at this stage it seems he will be shortlisted (usually 10 are on the shortlist). The Welsh will not be afraid to vote for him either as they have proved time and again with their sons. Steven Gerrard in 2005 had a fairly similar profile and came third. That was the year Liverpool won the European Cup. Gerrard also got bronze in that year’s Ballon d’Or in the weeks before SPOTY.

Please, as always, feel free to comment and discuss anything I have posted and the latest in the SPOTY markets.

Lewis Hamilton 7/4 F1 Champion

Chris Froome 7/1 Tour de France winner

Andy Murray 14/1 Wimbledon / US Open Champion

Rory McIlroy 20/1 Win a major and be a key part of a Ryder Cup win

Gareth Bale 20/1 Won European Cup scoring the winning goal

Steven Gerrard 16/1 Captain England to World Cup final

Jonny Wilkinson 20/1 Retired after a stellar career

Mo Farah 50/1 Winning gold(s) at the Commonwealth Games

Carl Froch 20/1 Super middleweight champion

Lizzy Yarnold 25/1 Won Winter Olympic gold medal

hot list updated

Lewis Hamilton 7/4 F1 Champion

Chris Froome 8/1 Tour de France winner

Andy Murray 16/1 Wimbledon / US Open Champion

Rory McIlroy 21/1 Win a major and be a key part of a Ryder Cup win

Steven Gerrard 16/1 Captain England to World Cup final

Lee Westwood 80/1 Win a major and be a key part of a Ryder Cup win

Graeme McDowell 100/1 Win a major and be a key part of a Ryder Cup win

Lizzy Yarnold 25/1 Won Winter Olympic gold medal