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Summary

SPOTY 2025 preview

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Not got any real confidence with how things will play out tonight but it’s been a fun year to bet on with plenty of twists and turns after Rory McIlroy led the charge when winning the Masters in April to complete the career slam.

Chloe Kelly’s penalty in the Euros final shoot-out then clinched back-to-back Euros for the Lionesses in July launching her to odds on favourite.

Since Europe’s thrilling Ryder Cup win in September, Rory has gradually flipped back to favourite. Lando Norris’s first F1 title, secured in the last race of the season earlier this month, has seen him mount a late challenge.

The current approx odds an hour out from the show are McIlroy 8/13, Norris 9/2, Kelly 9/2. Luke Littler (33/1), Ellie Kildunne (50/1) and Hannah Hampton (100/1) make up the shortlist of 6.

Polls have been hard to find since the shortlist was announced. The YouGov poll had mostly don’t knows but those that selected a nominee had Norris 16% ahead of Littler 10%. McIlroy and Kelly were on 6%. Other online polls have though shown McIlroy ahead.

I was initially with Kelly in the battle against McIlroy, given the popularity of the Lionesses demonstrated by recent SPOTY winners Beth Mead and Mary Earps. Those two generated a lot more noise than Kelly has this year but maybe viewers will be reminded of the drama of the Euros win during the show. Fellow Lioness Hampton possibly dilutes things for Kelly (although there is to be a new voting window where only the top 3 remain).

Tonight sees the renewal of the battle of F1 v Golf. It’s worth a look at 2014 and, in the first year of this blog, the review of the year told the story of how McIlroy (who traded at 1.10 during the show) was turned over by Lewis Hamilton. Is history to repeat itself?

My feeling is that McIlroy’s achievements should be enough but would not be too surprised if he got beaten. For fun, will go with the standard 1-2-3 of McIlroy, Norris and Kelly.

There is a team of the year being voted on tonight too. William Hill have odds of Lionesses (1/6), Ryder Cup (5/1) and England women’s rugby union (7/1).

Good luck with bets and hopefully it will be an interesting night.

Selections, Summary

SPOTY 2023 preview

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Here we are again with a sub 1.2 SPOTY favourite and another England women’s footballer in Mary Earps (1.17 on Betfair) poised to claim the crown, following Beth Mead last year.

The shortlist was announced last week – the other contenders are Stuart Broad (10/1), Katarina Johnson-Thompson (20/1), Frankie Dettori (33/1), Alfie Hewett (66/1) and Rory McIlroy (150/1). The show is on BBC1 tonight at 7pm.

It’s been far from the strongest year with the nominees having not actually won that much on the field between them – KJT and Hewett perhaps the main exceptions to that.

In terms of the two market leaders, Earps’ England lost the World Cup final and Broad’s England could not reclaim the Ashes.

When the England men lost in the Euro final in 2021 Raheem Sterling was shortlisted but didn’t even make the SPOTY podium. When Harry Kane won the golden boot at the World Cup in 2018 he finished 3rd.

The Lionesses appear to have much more cut-through, inspiring large sections of the population, without the same club partisanship that seems to hold back the men on SPOTY night. Earps is very popular with a big following. This year she has won a raft of personal awards including World Cup golden glove, BBC Women’s Footballer of the Year, Sunday Times Sportswoman of the Year and Sports Journalists’ Association Sportswoman of the Year. She also did some swearing on the pitch and replicas of her goalie jersey weren’t available and then sold out.

Broad decided to retire during the final Ashes Test. He then hit a six off his last ball and took a wicket with his last delivery to win the match and level the Ashes. He ended up on 604 career Test wickets, 5th in the all-time list. There’s a lifetime achievement element to his nomination.

As there is to Dettori’s, although he’s now not actually fully retired, going back on his previous announcement. He’s had a good year though winning some of the biggest races of the season. There’s not much evidence the wider public has picked up on this at all and his chances of the podium rely on campaigning from those in racing. They have had successful campaigns before with Hollie Doyle making the podium in 2020 but so far there appears less appetite to give Frankie as much of a leg-up this time round.

It’s easy to admire KJT and her battles to reach the top in heptathlon. She was successful this year in her comeback from injury to win gold at the World Championships.

Alfie Hewett has a had a great year in wheelchair tennis. He won’t be well known amongst the public but could have an inspiring VT on the show.

Rory McIlroy appears to be making up the numbers having been part of the dominant European Ryder Cup team but has had another year without winning a major.

Overall Earps and Broad look the most voter friendly, with a small bet on Hewett top 3 in case his VT connects.

* 2 pts Earps-Broad forecast 4/5 Sky Bet

* 0.25 pts Hewett top 3 3/1 general

Good luck tonight. Back next year when hopefully the Olympics and Euros can add a bit more depth to the markets.