Tag Archives: Charlotte Dujardin

selections – Jo Pavey and Gareth Bale (lay)

 * Jo Pavey 8 points to finish 3rd 13/8 Ladbrokes 6/4 generally

* Gareth Bale 10 points lay without McIlroy 25/1 on Betfair (covering previous advice to back at 33/1)

As discussed in my post yesterday there seems a genuine lack of confidence in Gareth Bale at the moment – he has been drifting quite substantially in the top 3 market (from about 2.66 earlier in the week to 3.6 to back now). This may change on the night if the Welsh vote in numbers.

But at the moment it look prudent to get Pavey on side to cover our position on Bale.

The only other contender I am a bit worried about who could upset the applecart is Charlotte Dujardin,who will have large equestrian support (Zara Phillips won the award previously). So you may want a small saver on her. Also there is a possibility that Pavey could fly into the top 2 somehow – we can keep an eye on this.

In relation to Bale and the previous back to lay advice at 33/1 on 30 October there has been plenty of opportunity to trade out (traded as low as 12 on Betfair). This was certainly worth a bet as if Lewis Hamilton had not done the business in the final race then Bale would have gone favourite and probably odds on in this market. As it is, given the confidence behind Hamilton, I am not sure he has much chance and you should be able to get out, if you haven’t already, at about 22 to 25s. (As I mentioned in my post yesterday the staking for this bet was too high and in reality I don’t think anyone (I didn’t) would have actually staked this high – this should really have been a one or two point selection.)

shortlist announced

The shortlist from which the winner of SPOTY 2014 will come from was announced this evening. Probably the main surprise was that Jonny Wilkinson was omitted from the list. Here it is in order of bookies’ odds with the best current price shown:

Rory McIlroy (golf) 1/4

Lewis Hamilton (F1) 7/2

Jo Pavey (athletics) 50/1

Gareth Bale (football) 66/1

Lizzie Yarnold (skeleton) 200/1

Charlotte Dujardin (equestrian) 200/1

Max Whitlock (gymnastics) 250/1

Carl Froch (boxing) 250/1

Adam Peaty (swimming) 250/1

Kelly Gallagher and guide Charlotte Evans (skiing) 300/1

It looks a two horse race at the moment. Hopefully our selection Bale has a good chance of 3rd place – it looks to be between him and Pavey for that. There is of course potential for shocks in this market as has been known on many an occasion.

Once things have settled down and the markets become more liquid on Betfair I’ll update on any potential plays. Social media and polls can be quite interesting as we build up to Sunday 14 December 2014.