Keely Hodgkinson (1/4) is the red-hot favourite for SPOTY tonight (7pm, BBC 1). She won Britain’s sole athletics gold medal in the 800m at the Paris Olympics and, at 22, is destined for future greatness.

She is the 4th consecutive odds-on female favourite after Emma Raducanu, Beth Mead and Mary Earps. This time it’s not quite a foregone conclusion, as 17-year-old darts sensation Luke Littler (7/2) is in pursuit. He’s nailed on to pick up Young SPOTY but can he overhaul the market leader?

His run to the final of the world darts championships in January and subsequent landing of 10 tournaments, including the Grand Slam of Darts, led to him becoming the most searched UK sports person on Google, behind only Kate Middleton and Donald Trump overall.

He’s certainly captured the public’s imagination. It’s quite hard though to gauge how motivated viewers will be to vote for him and whether he can outpoll the more traditional SPOTY appeal that Keely represents. Luke’s segment on the show should be good fun and he comes across well. Keely is quite reserved in comparison but very deserving. Expect the show to make a lot of this year being a stepping stone for Luke but the hitting of a long aimed for target for Keely.

I’d agree with the market that Keely is most likely but it probably makes sense to have a small fun bet on Luke given the disparity in the prices.

It looks like a shoot out between Joe Root (8/13 for top 3) and Alex Yee (11/8) for the other podium spot. Root has the greater legacy that fans could wish to reward after becoming England’s leading test run scorer, whereas Yee provided one of the stand out spectacles this year with his last-gasp win in the Olympic triathlon. Yee should have a good segment on the show and is a bigger price so will go with a small bet on him for top 3.

Sarah Storey and Jude Bellingham make up the shortlist, further bios can be found here.

The site’s main pick of Adam Peaty was one that got away after he was pipped to gold by an outsider – he would have been a strong top 3 contender at least. Others to trade single figures this year, as well as Peaty and Bellingham, include Lando Norris, Jordan Pickford, Harry Kane, Mark Cavendish, Emma Finucane and Katerina Johnson-Thompson.

* 0.5 pts Luke Littler to win 7/2 Bet 365, Bet Victor

* 0.5 pts Alex Yee top 3 11/8 general